Employment Issues in the Process of Developing Renewable Energy in China
admin 2016/01/21
China
has by far the most jobs in the renewable energy sector on a worldwide
basis. However, during the energy transition, the job losses in the
conventional energy cannot be offset by the growing PV market. The
Beijing based Rock Environment & Energy Institute (REEI) explains
the employment impacts of renewable development in China.
Currently, China accounts for around 40% of global PV jobs. (Photo by Jiri Rezac, modified, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)China
gets many jobs from its conventional energy sector. If the country
reduces the proportion of coal generation in a relatively short period
of time, this will surely lead to job losses even if we take into
consideration the country’s growing renewable energy sector. Therefore,
Chinese policy makers today have to think about the job aspect of its
energy transition and prepare for any subsequent challenges along the
way.After
comparing and analyzing recent reports and data on employment issues of
the Chinese renewable energy industry, we think that the energy
transition’s effect on employment figures might face two main challenges
in the period of 2020-2030. For one, the job numbers in the
conventional energy sector will decline, and the PV job numbers will
slow to grow as fast as they currently do. The first problem is largely
due to historical burden of coal’s dominance in China’s energy system,
which is set to decline considerably over the next 10-15 years. The
second problem is that PV will not be able to offset the loss in job
numbers in the coal sector under current government policies.Based
on the existing research on employment impacts of renewables
development, we speculate that there will be a turning point of
employment in China’s energy industry in 2030. By then, the development
of renewable energy will have reached a certain size to offset the job
losses in the traditional energy sector, and will then result in a
steady increase in job numbers in entire energy industry.Currently,
China accounts for around 40% of global PV jobs. PV jobs provide the
largest share in renewable energy jobs; in 2014, the employment reached
1.6 million, a 4% year-on-year increase. This growth was due to the
increased global demand for PV and to the dramatic growth in domestic
installed capacity. The high proportion of employment in China’s solar
industry is closely linked to the country’s role as the world solar
manufacturer.Comparison of renewable energy industry’s employment capacity in China and other countriesAdapted
from REN21’s Renewables Global Status Report (2015). The solar energy
in the chart includes solar PV, solar heating and solar thermal power.If
we examine the job numbers per megawatt (MW) the ratio was close to 60
jobs per MW in China in 2014, approximately 4 times the world average.
In the long run, however, the job numbers in China’s PV industry will
likely decline due to increasing technological competition, alleviation
of industrial overcapacity and improved productivity. If we assume that
the year 2020 will be a tipping point for job numbers per megawatt, then
the decrease in new jobs will coincide with a decrease in net
employment figures for the entire energy sector (we mention this in our
first point) in the period of 2020-2030.
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